RUB/USD: 92.4 ▼ 1.2% | US Defense Budget: $886B ▲ 3.4% | Russia GDP: $2.1T ▼ 0.8% | Active Sanctions: 14,872 ▲ 6.1% | Brent Crude: $82 ▼ 2.3% | NATO GDP Target: 2.1% ▲ 0.3% | US-Russia Trade: $4.6B ▼ 52% | Nuclear Warheads: 12,121 ▼ 1.4% | Urals Discount: $14 ▲ 8.2% | Arctic Claims: 6 ▲ 0% | RUB/USD: 92.4 ▼ 1.2% | US Defense Budget: $886B ▲ 3.4% | Russia GDP: $2.1T ▼ 0.8% | Active Sanctions: 14,872 ▲ 6.1% | Brent Crude: $82 ▼ 2.3% | NATO GDP Target: 2.1% ▲ 0.3% | US-Russia Trade: $4.6B ▼ 52% | Nuclear Warheads: 12,121 ▼ 1.4% | Urals Discount: $14 ▲ 8.2% | Arctic Claims: 6 ▲ 0% |

Strategic Analysis

Deep-dive assessments of the US-Russia strategic balance — scenario modeling, policy recommendations, historical context, and forward-looking intelligence on great power dynamics.

Strategic Stability in the Post-INF Nuclear Age

With the collapse of Cold War arms control architecture, the US and Russia must navigate a new era of strategic instability. This analysis examines the pathways to a successor framework and the risks of unconstrained competition.

Mar 3, 2026

Measuring Sanctions Effectiveness: Economic Warfare and Its Limits

After three years of unprecedented sanctions against Russia, evidence on their effectiveness tells a more complex story than either advocates or critics acknowledge. A rigorous assessment of what sanctions have and have not achieved.

Mar 2, 2026

Arctic Geopolitics: The Next Theater of US-Russia Competition

Climate change is opening the Arctic to navigation, resource extraction, and military competition. Russia's Northern Fleet expansion and America's icebreaker deficit define the emerging strategic balance in the High North.

Mar 1, 2026

Cyber Warfare Between Washington and Moscow: Escalation Dynamics and Red Lines

Both the US and Russia possess sophisticated cyber warfare capabilities targeting each other's critical infrastructure. Understanding the escalation dynamics and implicit red lines that govern this shadow conflict is essential for stability.

Feb 28, 2026

The China Factor: How Beijing Reshapes the US-Russia Strategic Triangle

The deepening Russia-China partnership has transformed US-Russia relations from a bilateral contest into a triangular dynamic. Analyzing Beijing's role as strategic partner, economic lifeline, and potential mediator.

Feb 26, 2026

Information Warfare: The Battle for Narrative Dominance

Both the US and Russia wage sustained information campaigns targeting each other's publics and the international audience. Mapping the infrastructure, tactics, and effectiveness of bilateral information warfare.

Feb 14, 2026